Anmelden/Registrieren
Zurück zur geteilten Ansicht
Verfasser Titel Jahr
zeige Details García-Ferrer, Antonio., Queralt, Ricardo A.. Using Long-, Medium-, and Short-Term Trends to Forecast Turning Points in the Business Cycle: Some International Evidence
In: Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics. - Cambridge, Mass. : MIT Press, ISSN 1081-1826, Vol. 3, No. 2 (1998), p. 2
Zugang: zum Volltext
ähnliche Vorschläge
1998
This paper provides rules for anticipating business-cycle recessions and recoveries for countries showing asymmetric cycle durations. Based on a Schumpeterian framework, we analyze business cycles as sums of short-, medium-, and long-term cycles defined for a particular class of unobserved component models. By associating the trend with the low frequencies of the pseudo-spectrum in the frequency domain, manipulation of the spectral bandwidth allows us to define subjective length trends with specific properties. In this paper, we show how these properties can be exploited to anticipate business-cycle turning points, not only historically, but also in a true ex-ante forecasting exercise. This procedure is applied to U.S. post-World War II GNP quarterly data, as well as to another set of European countries.
beteiligte Personen: García-Ferrer, Antonio. , Queralt, Ricardo A..
Format: Elektronisch
Sprache: English
Erschienen: The Berkeley Electronic Press, 1998.
Serie: Berkley Electronic Press Academic Journals [Dig. Serial]
Schlagwörter:
URL: http://www.bepress.com/snde/vol3/iss2/art2

Ähnliche Vorschläge

Zurück zur geteilten Ansicht
Verfasser Titel Jahr
zeige Details García-Ferrer, Antonio., Río, Ana del. A cyclical characterization of economic activity in the United States, 1887-1940
In: Journal of economic studies. - [S.l.] : Proquest, Vol. 28, No. 2 (2001), p. 74-92
Zugang: zum Volltext
ähnliche Vorschläge
2001
zeige Details Beer, J., Siegenthaler, U., ... Information on past solar activity and geomagnetism from <sup>10</sup>Be in the Camp Century ice core
in: Nature . - London [u.a.] : Nature Publising Group, ISSN 1476-4687, Vol. 331, No. 6158 (1988), p. 675-679
Zugang: zum Volltext
ähnliche Vorschläge
1988
zeige Details Blain, Stéphane, Quéguiner, Bernard, ... Effect of natural iron fertilization on carbon sequestration in the Southern Ocean
in: Nature . - London [u.a.] : Nature Publising Group, ISSN 1476-4687, Vol. 446, No. 7139 (2007), p. 1070-1074
Zugang: zum Volltext
ähnliche Vorschläge
2007
zeige Details Brooks, Chris., Tsolacos, Sotiris., ... The cyclical relations between traded property stock prices and aggregate time-series
In: Journal of property investment & finance. - Bradford, West Yorkshire [u.a.] : MCB Univ. Press, Vol. 18, No. 6 (2000), p. 540-564
Zugang: zum Volltext
ähnliche Vorschläge
2000
zeige Details Westlund, A. H., Öhlén, S. On testing for symmetry in business cycles
in: Empirical economics , ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 16 (4. 1991), p. 479-502
Zugang: zum Volltext
ähnliche Vorschläge
1991